Panic Porn

Even as social unrest initially precipitated by the George Floyd murder continues, Team Apocalypse (i.e., the Dems, their media hamsters, some in the medical community and a very few GOP members) is unswayed in its efforts to sow COVID-19 fear and hysteria throughout the land. The media has decided to emphasize the growth in the number of "cases," pushing, yet again, their tiresome and completely dishonest implication that 'we're all gonna die.'

Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) has been one of the relatively few heroic journalists who have tried to get the truth about COVID-19 into the public sphere. His recent pamphlet based on actual scientific data and studies was initially banned from publication by the woke referees at Amazon (it was later published after their "mistake" was rectified), Yes ... the woke are active, card carrying members of Team Apocalypse -- except, of course, when some more important thing (like approved progressive protests) arises. Then it's okay to jettison a lockdown, social distancing, and the banning of large gatherings.

Berenson addresses the latest media canard that we should all shelter in place because ... "cases." Here is his twitter thread on the subject in its entirety:

1/ This panic [about the growth in the number of cases] is likely to prove even more embarrassing than previous panics. Here's why: the media is both confused and conflating several different data points in an effort to stir hysteria. (Stop me if you've heard this before.)

What do I mean?

2/ So: you've heard positive tests are up in several states. True. The media refers to these as "cases," as if positive tests have clinical significance by themselves. They do not. The vast majority of people with positive tests do not become ill enough to need hospitalization...

3/ Much less intensive care or ventilator support. For people under 50, this is true in the extreme. But the daily age distribution of positive tests is rarely if ever supported...

4/ Second: you've heard overall hospitalizations are up in some states. This is also true. THIS IS A FEATURE, NOT A BUG. Overall hospitalizations are rising because people are returning to hospitals for elective (and in some cases very necessary) surgeries that were postponed...

5/ Now, in some of these states COVID-related hospitalizations have also risen (though they make up a tiny fraction of overall hospitalizations). Scary, right?

No. When people go to the hospital for elective surgeries they are now routinely tested for COVID...

6/ Whether or not they are symptomatic. Hospitals have financial and legal as well as medical incentives to do this. IF THEY ARE POSITIVE, hospitals will report them as COVID patients (since, technically, they are), EVEN IF THEY HAVE NO COVID SYMPTOMS.

7/ This fact accounts for the bizarre disconnect between the fact the number of people going to emergency rooms with influenza-like or COVID-like symptoms is NOT rising (and remains in the low single digits) even in states reporting more hospitalizations...

8/ As well as the fact that fewer hospitalized cases are now progressing to ventilators (I can't swear to this in every state, but it appears to be a trend)...

9/ And the fact that deaths no longer seem to have any relationship to case counts in many states (true even accounting for the fact that deaths lag).

The question you should be asking yourself: why aren't Europe and Asia seeing post-lockdown spikes if this trend is real?

10/ And don't say masks. Masks are not routine in Europe. So either COVID is somehow different post-lockdown in Europe (and different in different states, too)... or this is just one last gasp of panic porn.

That's the truth of it. Feel better now?

Team Apocalypse, driven to keep the public fearful and unhinged so that the November election swings their way, is betting on "panic porn" to do the trick. It's a truly despicable strategy, but then again, it just might work.

UPDATE:

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Providing a little quantitative backup, the Wall Street Journal reports:

Democrats cite a spike in cases in Florida, Arizona and Texas as evidence of a virus resurgence. But more testing, especially in vulnerable communities, is naturally turning up more cases. Cases in Texas have increased by about a third in the last two weeks, but so have tests. About a quarter of the new cases are in counties with large prisons and meatpacking plants that were never forced to shut down.

Tests have increased by about 37% in Florida in two weeks, but confirmed cases have risen 28%. Cases were rising at a faster clip during the last two weeks of April (47%) when much of the state remained locked down. Now restaurants, malls, barbershops and gyms are open if they follow social-distancing guidelines.

In Arizona, cases have increased by 73% in the last two weeks though tests have increased by just 53%. But a quarter of all cases in the state are on Indian reservations, which have especially high-risk populations. The rate of diabetes is twice as high among Native Americans as whites and the rate of obesity is 50% higher.

Liberals and the media demanded more testing before states could reopen, yet now are criticizing states because more testing has turned up more cases. Keep in mind that New York has reported about the same number of new cases in the last two weeks as Florida, though it ramped up testing earlier so the relative increase appears less significant.

A more important metric is hospitalizations. In Arizona the weekly rolling average for new Covid-19 hospitalizations has been flat for a month. Emergency-room visits for Covid-19 have spiked this week, but the number of ER beds in use hasn’t changed since late April. Hospitals in Arizona (and California) have reported an increase in cases from U.S. citizens and green-card holders returning from Mexico where hospitals are overwhelmed. But with 22% of ICU beds and 62% of ventilators available, Arizona hospitals should have capacity to manage an increase in patients as it reopens.

Texas has also recently reported an uptick in Covid-19 hospitalizations, mostly in the Houston and Austin areas. Current Covid-19 hospitalizations are up about 20% since the state began to reopen, but Gov. Greg Abbott says hospitals aren’t overwhelmed and much of the increase is tied to nursing homes. The number of currently hospitalized patients per capita is still about 80% higher in New York City than in Texas. Mr. Abbott started reopening six weeks ago while Mr. Cuomo began letting manufacturing and construction resume in the Big Apple this week.

Fatalities are a lagging epidemic indicator since most people who die have been in the hospital for two to three weeks. But deaths also aren’t surging. Texas has recorded 151 deaths this past week versus 221 in the last week of April. Florida has reported 239 deaths, 72 fewer than in the last week of April.

Deaths are probably declining in part from better and earlier treatment, but this means there’s less to fear from reopening.

The Dems and their trained hamsters in the media and government desperately need to wreck the economy, at least until November 3rd. That's why cases "surge" every day without context or explanation. Re-opening bad, shutdown good. It's truly despicable how little the Team Apocalypse cares about the lives and livelihoods of tens of millions of people.