The further to the left or the right you move, the more your lens on life distorts.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

The Numbers

When I argued early in March, April, May and June (and in the months that followed) that the catastrophists in the Democratic Party and their trained hamsters in the media had an ulterior motive in dishonestly hyping COVID-19, many readers told me privately that I was over-reacting. Yet, the Democrat talking points in the closing weeks of the 2020 election indicate that the COVID hype was at least in part a politicial strategy—it's now virus "cases," virus deaths, virus, virus, virus, 24-7. Blame it all on Trump, the "murderer," and the election is theirs. 

Let's take one final look (before the election) at "the numbers" with the help of Dan Hoyt, a mathematician who decided to examine what's happening:

... the CDC data is fascinating reading ...

“In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States.”

That’s an average of 236,600 per MONTH. So, the total number of ATTRIBUTED COVID-19 deaths [earlier Hoyt discusses the accuracy of COVID-19 death counts, which is highly suspect] over 7-8 months is still less than the number of TOTAL deaths in a normal SINGLE MONTH in the US. So how many total deaths there have been in 2020? CDC reports 2,399,494 through Week 39 (September 26): The previous year, over the same 39 weeks, the CDC reported 2,123,573. That means that 2020 has resulted in a net increase in TOTAL deaths of about 13% (275,921). Compare that to a 4.4% (86,599) increase in the 2014-15 flu season or a 3.2% (64,531) increase in the 2016-17 flu season.

So, yes, 2020 looks worse than anything we’ve seen since 2013, and nobody’s denying that, despite what the MSM is claiming, but it’s hardly the “we’re all going to die” story the MSM has been pushing.

And don’t forget that the population since 2013 has been steadily increasing, so the raw numbers are less important than the mortality per 100K, which is a COMPARABLE metric.

So how bad is 2020? Go back to 2018:

Leading causes of death:

All causes: 723.6 per 100K

Heart disease: 163.6 per 100K

Cancer: 149.1 per 100K

Chronic lower respiratory: 39.7 per 100K

Flu/Pneumonia: 14.9 per 100K

Suicide: 14.2 per 100K

The CDC’s latest info says 7.6% of the 2020 deaths were ATTRIBUTED to flu/pneumonia/COVID-19 ( Using the current US population of 330,491,064 from the Census Bureau (, that means:

Flu/Pneumonia/COVID-19: 55.2 per 100K (attributed)

Flu/Pneumonia/COVID-19: 13.8 per 100K (probable, based on NYC)

That’s a big range, but if the PROBABLE numbers are accurate, that’s LESS than 2018 numbers for flu/pneumonia alone. [emphasis mine] And if the ATTRIBUTED numbers are accurate, it’s still about the same as 2018 for flu/pneumonia/chronic lower respiratory combined. And we already suspect that most chronic lower respiratory deaths were attributed to COVID-19, so where does that leave us?

It leaves us in a place where Team Apocalypse—the Democrats at the federal, state and local levels, their media, and far too many public health officials— have encountered a serious virus and hyped it into what the public perceives to be a catastrophic event. As a consequence, they have destroyed lives and livelihoods, kept children out of school, and otherwise terrorized a significant percentage of the public, at least in part to gain political advantage in the last weeks on the election season. 

You say it isn't true? Look at the empty rhetoric of Joe Biden and his advocates. They're "following to the SCIENCE!!!" 

Yeah, right. If that were the case, they might take a look at the CDC numbers. And for those that believe Biden's claims? It might be a good idea to review the numbers discussed by Hoyt and tell me how Team Apocalypse's conclusions (and lockdowns and catastrophist reporting, and scare tactics) could have been reached otherwise.


And then we come to masks. Team Apocalypse and Joe Biden tell use that mandatory masking is essential to stop the virus (even outdoors!). They also tell us that they're following the SCIENCE. Really?

Joseph Ladapo (a professor at UCLA's School of Medicine) surveys the actual scientific literature, not meaningless anecdotal studies (e.g., hairdressers in GA) that seem to absorb the trained hamsters in the media, and writes:

While mask-wearing has often been invoked in explanations for rising or falling Covid-19 case counts, the reality is that these trends reflect a basic human need to interact with one another. Claims that low mask compliance is responsible for rising case counts are also not supported by Gallup data, which show that the percentage of Americans reporting wearing masks has been high and relatively stable since June. Health officials and political leaders have assigned mask mandates a gravity unsupported by empirical research.

On even shakier scientific ground is the promotion of mask use outdoors. One contact-tracing study identified only a single incident of outdoor transmission among 318 outbreaks. Even the Rose Garden nomination ceremony for Justice Amy Coney Barrett, which the media giddily labeled a “superspreader” event, likely wasn’t; transmission more likely occurred during indoor gatherings associated with the ceremony.

By paying outsize and scientifically unjustified attention to masking, mask mandates have the unintended consequence of delaying public acceptance of the unavoidable truth. In countries with active community transmission and no herd immunity, nothing short of inhumane lockdowns can stop the spread of Covid-19, so the most sensible and sustainable path forward is to learn to live with the virus.

It truly is galling to listen to scientific illiterates (Joe Biden is an primary example) pontificate on COVID-19 when they don't understand statistics, have no knowledge of the raw numbers (other than the death scoreboards), refuse to consider the history of other SARS-like illnesses and pandemics, and then double down on bad decisions that have already had catastrophic consequences.