Dead Heat

I rarely, if ever, discuss political polls. Part of the problem is that all polls are snapshots in time, subject to change as events change, and skewed by the manner in which MSM presents events to the public. The results of any poll can also be influenced by the wording of the polling questions, the sample size, and the bias of those who report the results. Having said all that, there are some fascinating poll results coming not from Pennsylvania, but rather from Massachuetts—a very, very, blue state that prides itself on liberal ideals.

Michael Graham of the Boston Herald reports:

Barack Obama, meet John Adams.

Adams noted during the Boston Massacre trial that “Facts are stubborn things.” And it appears that, for the moment, the facts have caught up with Obama here in Massachusetts.

How else to explain the amazing, astounding and unthinkable results of the latest SurveyUSA presidential poll: Republican John McCain is tied with Barack Obama in the Bay State.

The last Republican to win Massachusetts? Ronald Reagan. The last Republican before that? Dwight Eisenhower. Even George McGovern managed to carry Massachusetts in 1972, the one Democratic holdout in Richard Nixon’s 49-state landslide.

Replace “McGovern” with “MoveOn.org” and you’ve seized the essence of the Obama candidacy. He’s the most liberal U.S. senator, advocating tax increases on the “wealthy” and enjoying the support of Gov. Deval Patrick, Sen. Ted Kennedy, The Boston Globe-Democrat and every 9/11 conspiracy kook in the People’s Republic of Cambridge. He’s got all the players in Massachusetts behind him except the ones who actually vote.

While Hillary Clinton soundly beats McCain in Massachusetts in the new SurveyUSA poll, 56 percent to 41 percent, the Obama/McCain number is 48 percent to 46 percent, well within the margin of error.

A Democrat struggling here in 2008? An unpopular war, a collapsing housing market and $4 gas - if Britney Spears were running as a Democrat, she’d pull at least 50 percent of the Massachusetts vote.

Sixty percent if she kept her clothes on.

It must be a mistake! How could Republican maverick be statistically even with St. Barack—the candidate of hope and change.

Some in Massachusetts suggest that Obama’s problems in the Bay State are due to his kindred spirit, Gov. Duvall Patrick, who ran on a hope and change platform and delivered neither. It’s a reasonable hypothesis, but Michael Graham suggests another:

Typical Americans want to know if Obama, a liberal community activist with little political or executive experience, is tough enough to face our enemies in a troubled world. Massachusetts Democrats could not care less - they just want to make sure he’s tough enough to take on McCain.

And because the answer is “probably not,” Obama is struggling among what should be his most ardent admirers. Massachusetts liberals like him as a guy, and they certainly support his politics. But they really hate losers. Especially after the last eight years.

I suspect that many of the Democratic super delegates—you know, the ones who are supposed to avoid responsibility and vote in lockstep with the “will of the people”—are asking the same thing right about now.