Dangerous Fantasy

Barack Obama, John Kerry and their Team of 2s have been wounded by Bibi Netanyahu. The Israeli prime Minister had the courage to call out this president before he enters into a bad deal with Iran, and more important, Bibi significantly raised the level of consciousness of members of Congress, specifically with respect to claims of "verification." Hopefully, the media, the congress and the American people will take a very hard look at any deal that Obama cuts with Iran.

But what is a bad deal? First, it's a deal that allows Iran to continue to operate it centrifuges, thereby enabling them to enrich more and more uranium with each passing month. Second, it allows Iran to move toward a bomb after some prescribed period of time—say, the ten years that seems to be what Obama is looking for. Third, it relies on international verification to ensure that the Mullahs aren't cheating, something recent history indicates is a completely ineffective approach. Finally, it refuses to address 11 of 12 core elements that would enable Iran to build a bomb, focusing solely on Uranium enrichment, but disregarding things like ICBM research, development of a fusing, arming and detonator system, explosive testing and simulation, and construction of neutron initiator and nuclear core. It appears that any agreement being negotiated doesn't even consider these core elements.

The New York Times comments on verification:

The I.A.E.A. inspectors saw hope of getting answers in mid-2007 when they agreed on a “work plan” with Iran meant to shed light on what happened inside the secretive laboratories run by Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, said to be Iran’s atomic mastermind. More than two years later, in late 2009, the plan lay in ruins. Mohamed ElBaradei, then the agency’s director general, said the inquiry had “effectively reached a dead end” because of Iran’s intransigence.

In November 2011, the inspectors stepped up the pressure by publishing a detailed listing of a dozen major fields critical for warhead building, saying their cache indicated that Iran had deeply researched the topics. Iran repeated its disavowal. In August 2013, as tensions mounted, Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, elected on a platform of getting international sanctions lifted, agreed to open negotiations about the overall fate of Iran’s atomic program.

While those talks have dragged on for 18 months, Iran has let inspectors deep inside its production facilities and observed every commitment on cutting back its production of nuclear fuel. But it has continued to stiff-arm the inspectors on the question of suspected “military dimensions,” despite agreeing to another work plan. The Obama administration has said little about that silence.

Last month, the inspectors reported that “Iran has not provided any explanations” for two of the three design questions now on the table. The other nine remain in limbo.

Yet, Barack Obama will tell us (should a deal be cut) that somehow, some way, we'll be able to verify now, when we couldn't verify over the past 8 years. Even worse, the other components of a bad deal remain in place.

The notion that a negotiated agreement with the Mullahs in Tehran is somehow in America's best interest is a fantasy—a very dangerous fantasy.