Don't be Afraid

Do you know why casinos stay in business? After all, they create a fantasy image of bling and glitz where everyone plays and every one wins. If that were the case, they'd go bankrupt.

They stay open (and make copious money) because their business model is rooted in reality and the statistics that are the basis of all reality. That is, the odds are always, irrefutably and undeniably in their favor. Sure, an occasional better wins big, but overall, betters lose and that's why casinos thrive.

When Donald Trump was hospitalized with COVID-19 two things could have happened. He could have recovered with little incident or he could have become very sick or even died. Statistical data tell us what the likely outcome would be. 

In the fantasy world of Team Apocalypse, Trump had received a death sentence. Despite all of the "thoughts and prayers" hypocrisy, I suspect that deep, deep down, members of the Team hoped for the worst. After all, it would have solidified their "we're all gonna die" fantasy; it would have further convinced the general public that fear, uncertainty and doubt is the new normal; it would have encouraged Democrat governors and Joe Biden to lockdown the country yet again, and it would have been a useful morality play in which the bad orange man was struck down because of his unacceptable behavior vis a vis the virus. 

Instead, a worst case scenario (from Team Apocalypse's POV) occurred. Trump left the hospital after three days. He was sick, but recovered after treatment. But that's not the problem. It's what he said (tweeted) that caused the Team's collective heads to explode:

"Feeling really good. Don't be afraid of Covid! Don't let it dominate your life."

Oh my. Talk about being triggered. Members of the Team flew into a rage condemning what any rational person would see as proper tone and sentiment. Muffled by the masks they wear constantly, they called Trump's statement "Irresponsible," "Gross," "Against the public interest," and "Dangerous." They clutched their pearls, frowned, and shook their heads. 

But this was an 'emperor's new clothes' moment. It yet again demonstrated that when fantasy collides with reality, reality prevails. Team Apocalypse (the 'emperor') needs the fantasy to continue. It needs people to live in fear, uncertainty and doubt. It needs schools to be closed and the nation locked down. And Trump, with a single tweet,  threatened that.

For six long months, the Team encouraged fear. For six long months they purposely avoided the statistics and data that indicated that the virus is serious, but it is statistically very unlikely to kill. 

Ironically, Trump was a casino owner. He understands the business model. With his tweet yesterday, he told people that relative to COVID-19, the odds are always, irrefutably and undeniably in their favor. Sure, an occasional COVID-19 patient tragically becomes very sick and dies, but overall, all of us can continue to live and thrive.

Don't be afraid. Don't let it dominate your life.

UPDATE-1:

As she always does, Heather McDonald relies on statistics and common sense to distill the truth about public policy. She, and many other journalists like her (Alex Berenson comes to mind) are Team Apocalypse's worst nightmare. McDonald writes:

It is not even clear that a more work-friendly policy would lead to more [COVID-19] deaths. While the profile of the typical coronavirus decedent has been known for months—median age 80, suffering from co-morbidities that likely would have killed the person anyway—the exact path of transmission remains mysterious. There is no correlation globally between degree of lockdowns and coronavirus death rates. Countries such as Britain that imposed strict lockdowns have massively higher death rates than many countries, such as Japan, that mandated no lockdowns. Deaths and hospitalizations are going down in localities that were more commerce-friendly. There is still no uncontroverted evidence on mask-wearing. Thousands upon thousands of people who have assiduously worn masks have gotten the virus; thousands upon thousands who have not worn masks have not gotten it. Countries with extensive mask-wearing show no better results than several where people breathe free outdoors. What we do know is that transmission occurs overwhelmingly in poorly ventilated indoor spaces, between individuals who have been in close contact for a considerable period of time—15 minutes, in the CDC’s contact-tracing guidelines. The viral load in circulating outdoor air is too low to pose a risk to people passing one another in ordinary street interactions.

The long-known facts about the distribution of mortality risk from the coronavirus—relatively high at the upper age and illness range, negligible in the young—have made no difference to the tyranny of fear. On average, the coronavirus is, according to new WHO data, not more deadly than the flu, yet the conflation of cases with deaths is now absolute. When California State University, Long Beach, a campus of 37,000 students, shuts down because five students tested positive for the virus, we are in the realm of hysteria. When the New York Times portrays a 101-year-old military veteran as a coronavirus fatality, as opposed to someone who died of old age; when the Milwaukee coroner does the same for the death of an 89-year-old male with dementia, hypertensive and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and chronic renal failure, you know that the media and public-health establishments are looking for any excuse to inflate the death numbers.

But Joe Biden and the Democrats have decided that masks are a virtue signaling necessity even when outdoors and lockdowns are de rigueur "until we get the virus under control." If that takes two years, then we stay locked down for two years. Their response exhibits either hysteria or insanity—in either case, they do not deserve to lead.

UPDATE-2:

It really does appear that Team Apocalypse, particularly the Democrat's trained hamsters in the media, feel profoundly threatened by Trump's "Don't be afraid." tweet. They really are desperate to foster FEAR, because it suits their political strategy. Joy Pullman writes:

We can't have people prudent about COVID, or rational about COVID, or thoughtful, or courageous about COVID. That does not produce the social outcomes that these people want. Being scared of COVID does.

That's why members of the team insist that we wear masks outside. It has NOTHING to do with science (the likelihood of outside spread is close to zero, if people respect each other's personal space).  The masks serve as a constant and dark reminder that you need to be afraid. That's what the Team wants. 

There is no need to close a University because a few COVID cases arise. Out of 70,000 COVID cases reported on college campuses, 3 (yes, that would be 1-2-3) have required hospitalization and one person has died. But don't tell that to the university administrators who are avid members of Team Apocalypse. BTW, one death in 70,000 means that if you're a college student and you get the virus, your chances of recovery are 99.9986 percent. But yeah, shut it all down.